01비단타 발라타, 장타자에게 유리한 코스 셋업
PGA 투어 공식 베팅 분석 시리즈 '러닝 위드 릭(Running with Rick)' 최신 편이 비단타월드 멕시코 오픈을 앞두고 발표됐다. 분석가 릭은 멕시코 비단타 발라타(Vidanta Vallarta) 코스의 특성을 분석하며, 이번 주 베팅 전략의 핵심 키워드로 '거리(Distance)'를 꼽았다. 그는 페어웨이가 비교적 넓고 그린이 수용적인 코스 셋업상 티샷 이득을 극대화할 수 있는 장타자들이 리더보드 상단을 점령할 가능성이 높다고 진단했다.
과거 대회 데이터를 살펴봐도 비단타 발라타에서는 드라이브 비거리 상위권 선수들의 성적이 꾸준히 좋았다. 릭은 "세컨드 샷 거리가 짧아지면 공격적인 핀 공략이 가능해 버디 사냥에 유리하다"며, 러프가 길지 않아 드라이버 정확도보다 캐리 거리가 더 중요한 변수라고 설명했다. 이에 따라 이번 주 출전 명단 중 스트로크 게인드: 오프더티(Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee) 수치가 뛰어난 선수들을 최우선 고려 대상으로 분류했다.
릭은 구체적인 베팅 추천 명단 대신 '장타력'이라는 명확한 필터링 기준을 제시했다. 그는 "코스 전장이 7,400야드 안팎으로 길지 않지만, 파5 홀과 긴 파4 홀에서 이글 및 버디 기회가 집중된다"며 장타자들의 스코어링 파워가 우승을 가를 것이라고 내다봤다. 반면, 정확성 위주의 전략가나 쇼트게임 의존형 선수들은 이번 주 상대적으로 불리한 구도에 놓일 수 있다고 경고했다.
결론적으로 '러닝 위드 릭'은 비단타월드 멕시코 오픈에서 드라이버로 페어웨이를 멀리 보내며 버디 기회를 양산할 수 있는 '파워 히터'들에게 베팅 포커스를 맞출 것을 권고했다. 릭은 "이번 주는 거리라는 무기가 가장 날카로운 무기가 될 것"이라며 장타력 지표를 중심으로 한 라인업 구성을 독자들에게 주문했다.
02Original (English) — PGA TOUR
Players who teed it up in Bermuda last week might get whiplash when they arrive at Vidanta Vallarta for this week’s VidantaWorld Mexico Open. There might not be another two-week stretch on the schedule where the courses are more different from one another.
Just to remind you, Port Royal Golf Course, last week’s venue, is the shortest course on the PGA Tour schedule and rewards accuracy and wedge play. The greens run slow because of high winds, and course history was a big correlator to success.
Vidanta Vallarta will play more than 500 yards longer and will ask players to hit more shots from 175 yards or farther than just about any course on the schedule. This venue in Mexico has the fifth-widest fairways on the PGA Tour schedule, with one of the lowest penalties for missing the fairway. It will allow players with distance off the tee to lean into their strengths and let it fly!
The winners of this event, which began in 2022, have truly embodied these abilities, of course. Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Jake Knapp and … Brian Campbell? OK, that last one is an outlier, since Campbell is one of the shortest hitters on the PGA Tour. He took down the powerful Aldrich Potgieter in a playoff last year, which was one of the most unlikely results in recent memory. The vast majority of the leaderboards have been filled with the game’s biggest boppers, and it's easy to assume that will continue moving forward.
Alvaro Ortiz has made 25 starts on the Korn Ferry Tour this year and has captured two wins along the way. His recent run of eight events has been the best golf he’s played all year.
During that stretch, he captured his second win and has four other top-25 finishes, including a T9 at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, his most recent start. The only thing I worry about with Ortiz is that he’s been heavily reliant on his short game this year, which is something that can cause sustainability issues. However, he’s making tons of birdies and finding ways to the top of leaderboards, so it’s difficult to complain.
Now Ortiz is going to play in Vallarta for the fourth time, with his T13 in 2024 serving as his high-water mark. I’m backing Ortiz in the top-20 market this week at DraftKings Sportsbook, where he is priced at +295.
It’s been a rocky campaign for Luke Clanton, who is still very much in the maturation process for a young professional. The skill set is undeniable; it’s just a matter of finding enough consistency to contend regularly on the PGA Tour.
He has started to make progress with a T7 at the Utah Championship and a T11 in Bermuda, his two most recent starts. His ball-striking has shone, as he’s gained strokes on approach in seven of his last eight events. His putter has cooperated too, and he’s beaten the field by +7.02 strokes in his last seven rounds.
On paper, this should be one of the better venues for Clanton, who can spray it all over the place without much concern for where his tee shots land. Combined with his recent form, it’s enough to click Clanton’s name in the top-10 market for this week. That option is currently available at +230.
Few golfers have played as much golf in 2026 as Chan Kim, who will tee it up for the 31st time when he goes off this week. Nearly every facet of Kim’s game is above average, but he is buoyed by his 71.6% greens in regulation rate, which helps him convert a birdie or better 23.8% of the time. Both of those metrics are well ahead of his peers.
He’s taken a liking to Vidanta Vallarta, finishing T8 and T17 in the last two years. Those results allowed Kim to show off his putting prowess, as he gained more than 13 strokes on the greens alone in those eight rounds. The timing couldn’t be better for Kim, who is coming off his best PGA Tour finish of the year, a T6 last week in the weather-shortened Bermuda. I see a player with significant upside, which is why I will take on the risk that comes with deploying Kim in the top-10 market at +740.
Wyndham Clark is the favorite to win this event, and for good reason. From my perspective, he’s a player who benefits from his driving distance but often gets penalized for his lack of accuracy. That penalty will not exist here. He’s also a streaky birdie maker with the upside to win any event that he plays. While that is my personal assessment, the data backs that up as well.
Clark averages 311.8 yards off the tee, which is in the top 15% of PGA Tour players, but he only hits 58% of his fairways, which ranks him in the bottom third in terms of accuracy. As mentioned, that’s the best combination for Vidanta Vallarta this week.
After the tee shot, Clark is an accomplished iron player with one of the best putters in the world. He’s capable of hooping it from anywhere, which is illustrated by his enormous birdie-or-better rate — 25.1%.
As if all of this weren’t enough, the models love the way he sets up for this venue. The closest comparable course on the PGA Tour to Vidanta Vallarta is TPC Craig Ranch. It’s another venue that loves distance, doesn’t care about accuracy and is beaten by birdie makers. Well, Clark won there this year by getting to 30 under.
Any way you slice it, this course sets up to be one of the best that Clark could ask for, which is why he’s my pick to win the Mexico Open at +1125.
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