01퍼트감 회복이 선두권 추격의 최대 변수
멕시코 로스 카보스에서 펼쳐지는 대회에 참가 중인 라이언 제라드(Ryan Gerard)가 주말 라운드를 앞두고 본격적인 순위 상승을 노리고 있다. 전체적인 샷감이 안정적인 만큼 퍼트만 받쳐준다면 선두권을 위협할 만한 맹추격이 가능한 상황이다.
제라드는 이번 대회 동안 뛰어난 경기력을 선보이며 수차례 버디 기회를 만들어냈다. 그러나 결정적인 순간마다 퍼터가 제 역할을 해주지 못하면서 타수를 더 줄이지 못한 아쉬움을 남겼다.
주말 최종 라운드로 접어들수록 그린 위에서의 집중력이 승패를 결정짓는 핵심 요인이 될 전망이다. 제라드가 퍼팅 감각을 회복해 정교한 마무리를 보여준다면 리더보드 상단으로 빠르게 치고 올라갈 잠재력이 충분하다.
전문가들은 제라드의 퍼터가 협조해 준다면 로스 카보스에서 인상적인 주말 반격(weekend charge)을 성공시킬 수 있을 것으로 기대하고 있다.
02Original (English) — PGA TOUR
As was the case in the opening round, second-round play at the World Wide Technology Championship was suspended due to darkness. Fortunately, the top of the leaderboard won't change, as everyone at 10 under or better finished their round on Friday.
That means Ben James (+125) is your 36-hole leader after firing an 8-under 64. One shot behind him is Peter Malnati (+1200) at 14 under, while Zac Blair (+1300) occupies the solo third position at 12 under.
As you can imagine, any golf course that yields this many birdies seems ripe for someone to come from behind and usurp the leader with one or two strong rounds.
However, I don't know how easy it will be to catch James, especially with the golf he's been playing lately.
Outside of his opening-round 72 at the VidantaWorld Mexico Open, James has been downright impressive. He followed that up with rounds of 64, 68 and 65. So far this week, he's continued that hot play with rounds of 65 and 64, giving him an edge over Malnati.
For James, it's been a combination of great ball-striking and a really hot putter. As things stand, he's 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and fifth in Strokes Gained: Putting.
To no one's surprise, that's the exact recipe you want when trying to win at this golf course. Driving prowess isn't all that important here, but James is driving it well, hitting his irons well and making putts. There's no mystery as to why he's leading this event.
However, there's one golfer I think we should pay very close attention to. He's currently tied for sixth, ranks sixth in the field in ball-striking and has been doing just about everything right except making putts.
That golfer is none other than Ryan Gerard (+1375).
Gerard has gained nearly three strokes ball-striking, but he's also one of the only golfers inside the top 20 who is losing strokes putting.
I've talked all week about how important putting is at this golf course. However, there's a difference between targeting golfers who are consistently strong putters and identifying someone whose putting numbers might be holding back an otherwise excellent performance.
Gerard falls into that second category.
He's doing a number with his irons, gaining 5.631 strokes on approach, which ranks third in the field. If he continues hitting his irons at this level, he should keep generating birdie opportunities. The question is whether he can start converting a few more of them.
And while Gerard isn't among the best putters in the field, his recent results suggest he's much better than what we've seen from him this week.
He's lost strokes putting in just three of his last 14 measured events. That tells me his current putting performance is more of an exception.
Of course, he has his moments where the putter completely abandons him. Look at the FedEx Open de France on the DP World Tour in late September. He was blistering the ball with his irons but couldn't make a putt.
However, we've also seen what happens when the putter heats up. At the Memorial Tournament, he gained nearly three strokes putting. At the Rocket Classic, he gained nearly two strokes. In both events this year, he finished inside the top 10.
There's also the Paspalum factor. We typically see golfers putt better on these greens compared to more difficult putting surfaces, which gives me some optimism that Gerard can turn things around.
I'm not asking him to suddenly become one of the leaders in putting. I'm simply looking for him to get back to neutral with the flat stick.
That's what makes this price interesting. He's already among the best ball-strikers in the field despite giving strokes away on the greens. If he can maintain that approach play and make a few more putts, there's plenty of room for him to climb the leaderboard.
At +1375, I'm willing to take that chance.
Bravo, Denny McCarthy (+2200). Bravo.
Way to fight back with the flat stick after losing 1.8 strokes putting in the opening round and gaining 0.13 strokes in the second. Neither performance is anywhere close to the level we know McCarthy is capable of, but if we're seeing steady improvement, I'm here for it.
Right now, McCarthy is tied for fourth at 11 under, four strokes behind James, after putting together a fantastic ball-striking display. He's suddenly cooking with his irons, and his putter hasn't cooperated, at least not to the level we know it can.
So why wouldn't I take a bite out of this price?
I'm eliminating two golfers who I genuinely believe can win this tournament in Gerard and James, and I'm still getting a very palatable number on McCarthy.
The beauty of this bet is that I don't necessarily need McCarthy to win the golf tournament outright. He simply needs to finish ahead of everyone who isn't excluded from this market. And there's an outside opportunity that we hit the double. Gerard wins the tournament, McCarthy finishes solo second and we cash both tickets. A nice little double scoop.
I will remind you, though, that ties are subject to dead-heat rules, so we want McCarthy to finish as high as possible without having to share his position.
I think we're getting really good value here because I believe McCarthy has another top-five finish in him. Now, a top-five finish alone doesn't guarantee this ticket cashes, but it certainly puts us in a strong position depending on where the excluded golfers finish.
The question is whether McCarthy can actually win this tournament or if he finishes somewhere between second and fifth.
And if he does finish second, will it be James or Gerard who gets the job done?
Either way, I like our chances of getting a little cash out of this bet.